Electoral MMA unites left and right

Electoral MMA unites left and right

Electoral MMA: Some PT members claim that the narrow result in the presidential election is due to the election of the state machinery by Jair Bolsonaro.

Perhaps you think that you would have got your laundry because you do not recognize the shared land and the fact that so many voices in Labor (some experts indicate half of it) on anti-bulletism and not on the lula Support are due.

In the end you think about the signs of dangerous economic management, in accordance with the fact that you don’t have to “ask for permission to judge”. The word dialogue, repeated, empty.

But how much criticism was expressed in the election campaign of the machine in the Bolsonaro administration? First of all, this is not only a Brazilian disease, but also in emerging countries with the latest democratic transition.

The phenomenon even has a name: “political economic cycle”. The institutional fragility of countries can nourish the opportunistic behavior of politicians.

Examples of this are the lack of an effective opposition to the government; Laze of account control points and cuts; And the lack of transparency in tax administration and a qualified public debate hinder the understanding of voters for the future costs of tax crossings, such as: B. a higher inflation.

All of these elements are available to different degrees in Brazil. Political parties are mostly programmatic amorphous, and the popular footprint of many public policies complicates the work of the opposition.

For example, we watched PT by approving Bolsonaro’s election measures – such as the PEC Kamikaze, which increased Brazilian help to $ 600, despite all the design problems of this program and the advantages of certain election facilities such as taxi drivers and truck drivers.

The problem of institutions such as TCU, STF and TSE is often in the middle of the difficulty of recognizing abuse. However, these elements are not sufficient to explain the different experiences in the election years.

The score also depends on the position of the bosses. It was not the necessary rule of the self. Determining the extent of financial deviations in election years is a complex task. Finally deviate from any parameters?

The ideal is to identify expenses and income that arises from the government’s discretionary decisions, regardless of whether they are common or not, and to separate them from expenses that result from tax regulations and the economic cycle.

For example, times of weak economy with growth below the potential mean lower accumulation and an increase in some expenses, such as: B. unemployment insurance; Both income and expenditure effects must be discounted for the analysis of the political cycle.

The same applies to the purpose of indexing expenses and the linking of income, which restricts the state’s discretion.

In any case, the testing of the tax results shows the degree of commitment by the president for the fairness of the electoral process (Table 1).

The FHC improved the preliminary results in 1998 and 2002 for various situations of economic growth. The increase in sales was not completely reflected in an increase in expenses. Lola begins a time of financial decline. The primary surplus in relation to GDP decreased in 2006, but this is mainly due to stable income.

The result of 2010 revealed efforts to inflate the economy through tax incentives, disguised by accounting maneuvers and the artificial increase in profits that the state fills up – 0.6 % of GDP in 2010 compared to around 0.2 % until 2005.

Sérgio Gobetti and Rodrigo Orair make the corresponding adjustments and point out that the underlying variance in 2010 was zero compared to 2009, not the reported +0.8 pp. At Dilma, the insult is added to the injury.

The tax results decreased, while the expenditure increased and the income decreased, the latter achieved a good level due to increased tax benefits-in the amount of 4.4 % of GDP in 2014, compared to 3.6 % at the end of the Lula administration and 1.8 % at the end of the FHC, affected by the Fiscal Responsibility Act.

Worse, all in the middle of all kinds of creative accounting, “packaging” and expenses across the board, which do not appear the bottom line – as is the case with nasty, which are now billed in the budget.

At Bolsonaro, the discretion for increased fiscal incentives met with restrictions on the tax regulations, especially in the lidder rule. However, there were some old habits, through holes in the ceiling, the expectation of state gains (0.9 % of GDP in 2022) and increased tax breaks.

The financial result was improved by surprises in the group that received special effects. Other measures that are not taken into account in the underlying can give way to machine use in election years (Table 2).

Remaining payments to be paid – promised or unpaid expenses – can also show exceeding. These are the values converted from year to year without being included in the core result (the monetary system, not efficiency).

It also grew in the administration of Lula and Dilma and achieved a high of 4.1 % of GDP in 2013, in the middle of a loosening of the rules for the registration of residues to be paid. In the parasympathetic area, the general loan for the Lola II instrument was used extensively and deepened by Dilma.

The market share of public banks in credit rates even exceeded that of private banks and reached a maximum of 56 %at the end of the FHC years at the end of the FHC years. Salzo rose to 28.1 % in 2014 compared to 9.7 % in 2002 in the percentage of GDP.

In conclusion, it should be pointed out that it has been adopted the debt of the treasury since 2008 due to a large number of measures (which were passed between 2007 and 2014) that have been debt the debt of these facilities.

The income from the lending business reached its peak in 2013 with 0.7 % of GDP, before values of around 0.1 % between 2006 and 2007. In recent years, the number has returned to 0.1 %. Higher debt did not necessarily mean more investments in companies, but more costs.

And the bill was the Ministry of Finance, which had to pay the debts of the delay. In total, the union has paid $ 51.7 billion since 2016 to redeem guarantees in credit transactions. Unfortunately, the list does not go out here.

There are also opportunistic tax cuts to artificially lower inflation-such as the general tariffs and fuel prices-which is overlapping in the case of fuel under Bolsonaro-widespread by the Dilma 1 government and also from Bolsonaro, even to a lesser extent.

Since 2016, many initiatives have been aimed at the renovation of public accounts and the closure of channels for the abuse of referees, including the greatest interest of account control organizations.

The most important change resulted from the upper limit, but the creation of the TLP, the new rules for the debts of the states, the new system of registration and deletion of residues to be paid and the law of the states are remarkable.

Labor has little legitimacy to attack the election of the public apparatus, but it can contribute considerably by respecting the rules of the democratic game so as not to repeat the mistakes of the past. This spirit could prevail in the proposal for the new tax system that will soon be introduced.

Brazil today has stronger institutions and rules that restrict the opportunistic scope for rulers, but do not prevent them. The supervision of the democratic institutions is essential.