Opinion: Separation of the Times of Politics and the Economy. You must Reconcile them
Lola entered the field, but not in the best way. His actions reveal the priority he gave to politics. However, its efforts were directed towards the construction of the Allied base in the legislature. However, there are costs in this strategy. The appeasement of the company did not appear on its list of priorities, because it seeks to appease the concerns of the voters of Bolsonaro.
On the contrary, in the middle of the slight tirades that he will reign for all, Lula fuels the rhetoric of the adversary “we are against them”, which already comes from afar. His inaugural speech has already started to attack the previous government and at certain times unfairly, such as talking about the rating of public enterprises and public banks. Many of the above shades were adopted in 2003 and are incompatible with the low margin of victory in the ballot box.
The belief may seem to have weaker approval of the government and less capacity to debate controversial subjects on the agenda. What the president has done so far has focused on strengthening governance – perhaps a reflection of the trauma in recent years. It is an arduous task in our political system, characterized by a strong fragmentation of the parties. Many require political negotiations or the distribution of advantages in exchange for support for Congress.
Lula may have found these rare pieces today than when he reigned. Some of the reasons would be: a greater fragmentation of the parties in the congress; Parliamentary amendments, made compulsory by the Dilma government, reducing the cost of indeterminacy of parliamentarians at the base of the government and therefore the ability of the executive to express themselves at the Congress.
The new version of the amendments coordinated by the presidents of the Chamber and the Senate; And an increase in plaster for the Union budget due to the increase in compulsory expenses, which reduces the president’s attractiveness in the ministries. Faced with this situation, the president acted.
He has expanded the number of ministries, managed the participation of the Labor Party in the Cabinet to think of allies, possibly contributed to the STF decision to get rid of 2 % of the GDP for the budget , as well as the authorization to modify the tax base under the complementary law, deleting the wear of the negotiation of a constitutional amendment. Perhaps no other politician was so successful.
If it will build a solid base, it’s still five hundred, especially in the face of the challenges of the economy. In the wake of the campaign scenario, the discussion on the economic agenda was a corner kick – perhaps reflecting the strong improvement in the figures of the economy in 2022. A conception distinct from those fixed by others governors, like Michel Temer or even Lula in his first semester.
The inaugural speech has continued to defend the big country, a catalyst for growth – it is not known if it was for comfort or conviction. He said: “It is not logical that the country imports fuel, fertilizers, petroleum equipment, microprocessors, planes and satellites”. This thought goes against a fundamental principle according to which countries must develop their competitive advantages, and not produce everything, because this means less economic efficiency, and therefore less growth.
The most recommended is that the country promotes productivity gains, thanks to quality education, stimulation of innovation and a healthy business environment, so that the private sector is prosperous.
At the same time, the president mentioned a commitment of “responsibility, credibility and predictability”, referring to his previous administrations, which is controversial given the period when Guido Mantega was in charge of the Ministry of Finance, which was Marked by a distribution of profits to ineffective companies, and unsuccessful investment projects, manipulation and deterioration of public accounts. Letter of vacancy, when it is not contradicted.
All this without the expected deepening of the new Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad. To combine the expansion of expenses and the guarantee of the viability of public accounts, structural reforms must contain compulsory expenses, which are not indicated. Lula is pragmatic. It is not a reform and does not condemn tax discipline. It will only change course when you realize the deterioration of the economy.
It is difficult to determine the ceiling on this subject, which tends to fuel uncertainty and volatility. Even the time of the economy and the time of politics, He seems to have been Lula’s choice, but there are side effects. The confidence of investors, businessmen and consumers are weakening and they reduce their room for maneuver in the future, according to promises.
In addition, it is difficult to work in the economic team. If the president cares about governance, it is better not to neglect the economy to ensure jobs and low inflation